There is mixed opinion amongst analysts as to how this Christmas will fare compared to 2008 - but most agree year on year growth may not be as high as last year, although more customers are likely to visit retail websites for research purposes to get the best possible price. The number of visitors and transactions are likely to increase, but the value of purchases may be down on last year.
As Alex Burmaster, Nielsen Online's communications director was quoted as saying in the RetailWeek article: “In terms of visitors we are expecting it to be the biggest Christmas yet, but it is difficult to say on volume and value.”
This is reiterated by Peter Fitzgerald, Google retail industry leader: “There is going to be a lift year on year. I'm very confident in that. The average order value has trended downwards for a long time, but sometimes this just means consumers are purchasing more often.”
Analysts predict consumers are likely to leave transactions until well into December this year - and looking at 2008's parcels volumes for the Home Delivery Network (HDNL), retailers should take heed. Paul Mohan, HDNL's operations director told RetailWeek: “Last year we found that Christmas came sharper and later. In the last four weeks of 2008 we delivered about 500,000 more parcels than in the previous year. The busiest week was a week later and the busiest day was four days later than the year before.” And he adds: “The most important lesson learned from last year is that a partnership approach is needed to deliver a better service.”
Whether Christmas 2009 is going to be a bumper year or not, online retailers should be making preparations now for the Christmas rush:
And if August's online shopping figures are anything to go by, than the online retail market is still going to frantic this Christmas. The IMRG Capgemini e-Retail Sales Index has released new figures for August, showing a 16% year on year increase from August 2008, with UK shoppers spending £3.8 billion online last month. The chart below confirms where consumers spent the majority of their cash - the beer, wines and spirits sector and the lingerie sector were the hardest hit, as consumers, to some extent, continue to opt out of the luxury markets.
| Sector |
% Change Month on Month |
% Change Year on Year |
| Total Market |
-10% |
16.1% |
| Beers, Wines and Spirits |
-7.3% |
-17.1% |
| Clothing, Footwear and Accessories |
-19.1% |
16.5% |
| - Accessories |
-11.4% |
30.5% |
| - Footwear |
3% |
16.1% |
| Electricals |
1.2% |
20.2% |
| Gifts |
4% |
6.3% |
| Health and Beauty |
-3.1% |
34.5% |
| Lingerie |
-5% |
-3.6% |
Tina Spooner, Director of Information at IMRG comments:
“The seasonal monthly dip in web sales is in line with similar trends seen in recent years for the month of August and the yearly growth of 16% is actually higher than recorded in August last year. The continued annual growth in the online retail market is evidence that this medium is withstanding the challenges of the economic downturn and the retailers that continue to expand and improve their online presence will no doubt reap the benefits during the festive trading period."